Posts Tagged ‘economic data’

FX News: The GBP weakened against both the USD and the EUR

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Due to a lack of major economic changes in the US, the dollar didn’t gain or drop much from previous values.

The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ both weakened, with Dow Jones posting a -1.04% change for a three-month low and the NASDAQ weakening by -0.7%. Gold weakened by a small percentage, closing at $1,062.5 per barrel, while crude oil gained to $71.68 per barrel for a 0.69% increase.

The Pound weakened against both the dollar and the euro, largely due to the recent trend of decline in stocks. The GBP/USD pair traded at a high of 1.5660 and a low of 1.5534, and the pair is currently being oversold as it continues on its downward trend. The RICS House Price Balance came out 4% higher than the expected 28%.

The euro was able to gain on the pound, despite the worries over the Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese economies.

Still, Forex investors’ worries and hesitation are evident as the euro remained unchanged against the dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded with a high of 1.3714 and a low of 1.3621, as it continues to be oversold.

The Japanese yen experienced little change against the pound, dollar, and euro. The USD/JPY pair traded at a high of 89.56 and a low of 89.15.

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Forex Market data: The AUD is gaining some ground

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

Wednesday night, the AUD returned to its early momentum and rallied upwards following the Australian’s unemployment, which registered three times more jobs than initially forecasted.

As stated on Thursday morning GMT by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 5.5% from November.

Being one of the world’s still expanding economies, the Australians are generating more jobs than expected, while China is demanding more from its neighbors in concept of raw materials; new investments and more jobs are continuing. With this, it seems that the ozzie is continuing to be strong against all the major currencies in the Forex market.

At 06:52 GMT, The Rate Range:
AUD/USD – 115 pips (0.9215-0.9230); EUR/AUD – 131 pips (1.5623-1.5754)
GBP/USD – 168 pips (1.7496-1.7664); AUD/JPY – 129 pips (84.11-85.40)

EUR Trading data: Wednesday at 12:45pm GMT, The European Central Bank’s Governing Council is scheduled to meet for the first time this year and their non-decision on rates will be published.

Expectations are that the 1.00% rate will continue today and for the next several months. ‘Perhaps’ this will change later on, but not likely at the moment. Last week, the Bank of England retained its rates at 0.50%.

The meeting that will include the President Trichet’s ECB Press Conference, will also discuss as well the implications of European weaknesses in the weaker Euro-Zones (such as Greece).
The ECB published a working paper in December that suggested that it was unlikely for a member state to leave or to be forced out of the monetary union. Actually, this could be more important than the actual Rate announcement.
Wednesday’s Lows & High:
EUR/USD – 123 pips (1.4456-1.4579); EUR/GBP – 73 pips (0.8892-0.8965)
EUR/JPY – 170 pips (131.51-133.21); EUR/NZD – 23 pips (1.9595-1.9618)

USD Trading data: At 13:30 GMT, the U.S. Unemployment Claims are expected at 438k. This seems to be even more important in today’s session due to last Fridays un-forecasted 85k decline in non-farm payroll raised the concern that the economy is not on target for a recovery, and that improvement in the labor market may have slowed – if not reversed !
The lack of new job creation will have other repercussions to the US recovery, as it will encourage the US to boost job growth even further which would be included in a new stimulus plan; linked to the increased US budget deficit.

Yesterday’s Lows & High:
USD/JPY – 65 pips (90.90-91.55); GBP/USD – 170 pips (1.6135-1.6305)
USD/CAD – 122 pips (1.0288)

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Forex Analysis: Turmoil for the USD

Monday, January 11th, 2010

Thursday saw the US Non-Farm Payroll report that came out amidst hopes that it would show the US employment situation improving drastically. 

Nevertheless, the data showed a much larger drop than initially estimated: (11,000 more than expected), which raised the number of US unemployed since the recession began to 7.4 million, which is a 10.14% of the population. 

Following the release of the report, the Dollar collapsed, falling the most in one session in about two months. 

The USD had been traded up earlier in the week after the ADP payroll report and the First-Time-Filers unemployment report showed improvement, nevertheless, all the gains were quickly wiped out, as investors were relying on a strong NFP report. 

This report has been especially damaging, since it seems now unlikely that the US Federal Reserve will raise their near low interest rates at their next policy meeting in February.  Forex Investors have been hoping that a spate of positive data would spur the rate hike, yet, with the jobs situation seemingly still in decline, there is little optimism this will be the case.

The ICE Dollar Futures Index (a non-traded indicator that matches the USD performance against a basket of 6 major currencies); fell by its largest margin in two months, hitting just below 77 before recovering to close at 77.02.

At the close, the US Dollar was down 0.12% versus the Euro to 1.44 even, down 1.01% to the British Pound Sterling to 1.602, down .86% against the Canadian Dollar to 1.0301, down 0.72% to the Australian Dollar to 0.9245, down 0.92% to the New Zealand Dollar to 0.7358 and down over 1% to the Swiss Franc to 1.023.

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