Posts Tagged ‘currency analysis’

Forex investors still in a dubious situation on the fate of EUR

Friday, May 21st, 2010

Today the currency pair EUR/USD boosted out in the forex online market because of the rumors in the US market getting support from the ECB. Since from the past year’s low the pair drop down to 20 percent after the December high and in mid July it drops to 22 percent low. Now we are experiencing the a demand of additional gain in the Forex market because of the drop down of Dollar in the US market in the past 2008. The federal government only needs approach that will benefit the market is to sell the USD and not to ban their short sales. It is predicted about the US economy that it will become better in the year 2010 suggested by the Conference Board LEI data. The US economy unexpectedly slips down to 0.1 percent in April month after getting revised of 1.3 percent in the month of March.

The Europe economy is facing downside since the past year’s fall down of euro. The euro zone countries are going through the tough days of the economy but there is bright sunshine is seen in this week as the currency pair EUR/USD goes high because of the news that the EURO will receive a great help from the ECB government. But, the investors is still in doubt because of the failure of the Stabilization fund that has been announced to provide favor to the EURO currency. Germany prices grew more in April as expected to 0.8 percent. This has been recognized as the third advance as in the march month it was only reaches to 0.7 percent. It is also seen that the UK retail sales incremented for the third time in past three months including April. The retail sale price seasonally noted that was up in April from 0.1 to 0.3 percent.

Now the Asia-Pacific Forex market impact as it is seen that the Japan’s economy recovery was not raise this week as expected. GDP of Japan was abouit 4.9 percent recoreded as it is low that forecasted for the first quarter of the 2010 year. Since in fourth quarter of the past year the GDP recorded was up to 4.2 perecent but it does not do well this year. As if we talk about theAustralia’s economy rate it was down at 3.6 perecnt in the month of May than in April as it was recorded to 4.1 percent at that time. This uncertanity is due to the euro zone events that does not provide any benefits to the Europe instead affects the Global economy recovery. This survey is done by the consumer inflationary of  Melbourne Institute.

In Asia this week is not at all as good in terms of economy since the EURO is getting benefited from the past two days. This makes the currency pair of EUR/USD to hits high of 1.2671 from the low of 1.2150 points. The all euro currency pairs are showing good results after the upside trend of EURO in the Forex Trading chart. EUR/CHF reaches to 1.4585 by gaining 235 pips and EUR/JPY reaches the high of 114.35 points in a day where as 100 pips was gained by the currency pair EUR/GBP and reaches to a high of  0.8770 points. While Yen goes high against the equities and commodities that are going low along with the Nikkie reaches to 3 percent and touches the one point low in five months. These are all the latest updates about the Forex market of today in technical terms.

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Spanish fiscal squat led European trades to back foot

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

European markets tumbled yesterday, led by a sharp decline in Spain, shaking investor confidence and sending the Euro to a new one-year low against the U.S Dollar. The 16-nation single currency hit $1.29646, as concerns grew that the EU-IMF €110 billion aid package for Greece will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis.

The Euro-Zone governments and the IMF had hoped that this bailout package would sooth investor’s worries over high levels of sovereign-debt levels in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Instead it had the opposite effect –the fear of “contagion” rapidly spreading throughout the day as markets remained unconvinced that the package will restore Greece’s solvency.

The 16-nation single currency fell for a third day in a row against the greenback as the EUR closed at $1.29646, down 1.76% from the day’s opening price in the forex online market.

The Euro traded near an eight-month low versus the British pound as bond yields from Spain to Portugal and Ireland rose yesterday on speculation the crisis that began in Greece is spreading. The EUR/GBP hit a low of 0.85643 as yields on 10-year Greek bonds rose 90 basis points to 9.40% yesterday. The rate on similar-maturity debt in Spain climbed nine basis points to 4.13% and Portuguese yields advanced 35 basis points to 5.48%.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will speak to parliament today on the bailout after her coalition said that allowing the “orderly” default of region members burdened with debt may avoid a repeat of the Greek crisis. In Greece, unions plan their third general strike of the year today after workers yesterday occupied the Acropolis and shut down schools and hospitals at the start of a 48-hour walk-out.

The U.S dollar advanced toward an eight-month high against the Japanese Yen on optimism the U.S. economy will recover at a faster pace than Japan’s. This morning the greenback continued its rally versus the Yen, touching on a high of 94.896 this morning, before the U.S report today that economists said will show companies added jobs in April and service industries expanded at the fastest pace in almost five years.

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AUD pushed up 26% due to stronger growth and borrowing costs

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

Later today, the National Association of Realtors will release the number of pending home sales for the month of March. Pending home sales are expected to rise for the second consecutive month in March, which could be an indication that existing home sales will pick-up in the second quarter.  In February, pending sales in the U.S recorded their sharpest jump since 2001, rising a record 8.2%. This time around, the market predicts a slightly smaller rise of 3.9%.

Tomorrow, the US will release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, an important gauge of the labor market conditions and generally considered a predictive index for Friday’s highly awaited Non-Farm employment change. This ADP figure is predicted to show an increase of 29K in the number of employed people compared to a loss of 23K in the previous month.
In the forex online market Canada’s dollar rose versus the greenback as U.S. stocks climbed, crude oil reached $87 a barrel and gold touched the highest level since December. Yesterday, the currency touched on C$1.00989, gaining 0.58% against its American counterpart.

The Pound’s retreated from $1.53887 high on Friday extended lower on Monday as the pair reached a daily low of $1.52095. The GBP/USD closed yesterday at 1.52471 and has continued to fall in trading sessions this morning, touching on a low of 1.52103. This morning, Britain will announce a sequence of notable reports including the U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector (today 09:30 GMT), the Bank of England’s Mortgage Approvals Report, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring newly issued home loans, (at 0930GMT), and the U.K. Net Lending to Individuals, a gauge of consumer credit conditions (also at 0930GMT). The Pound continues to remain under pressure from this week’s election. According to recent polls, the U.K. election is still too close to call; indicating that there is still is chance that the election may result in no party having a majority in parliament. Without a majority calling the shots, it seems unlikely that the parliament will be able to tackle its sovereign debt problems and its budget deficit. Without guidance and direction, the government may be unable to come up with a viable plan to fight its fiscal issues, if this occurs, then look for the U.K. debt rating to be slashed at some point this year. This action will compound the weakness in the British Pound and drive the currency lower.

Australia’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time in seven meetings after inflation accelerated and officials judged the nation is insulated from the Greece-sparked sovereign debt concerns. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens increased the overnight cash rate target by 0.25bps to 4.5%.  However, following the announcement the Australian dollar weakened against 13 of its 16 most-traded counterparts. The Aussie touched on a low of 0.92180USD (down 0.54% from the day’s opening price), after Stevens said that interest rates for most borrowers will now be “around average levels” thereby eroding the case for more increases.  However, the Australian currency managed to rebound and is currently trading close to its opening price. Stevens, unlike counterparts in the U.S. and Europe, is under pressure to extend a world-leading round of rate increases as Australia’s economy accelerates, stoking inflation and property prices, which surged more than 20% in the 12 months through March. Stronger growth and higher borrowing costs have pushed the Australian dollar up 26% in the past year.

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