Forex News: moving from riskier assets to safe-haven currencies
Monday, January 25th, 2010On Friday, the desire to move out of riskier assets continued on into the US session, though there were pockets of support for certain currency pairs found at the lows in the Forex market.
After a weak retail sales print, the GBP traded on the soft side (+0.3% m/m vs. +1.1% expected) as the impact of the Cadbury takeover appears to wane and the USD started to gain favor.
The EUR, on the other hand, outperformed its peers for a change along with some hopeful talk of a Greece plan to be announced at the weekend (Torres from the European Central Bank commented that a Greek assessment plan would be ready by February 3rd, and in the meantime Greece reaffirmed its commitment to stay in the EU mechanism).
The CAD was also under a bit of pressure, again on a weak retail sales number (this time -0.3% m/m vs. -0.2% prior).
Additionally to the recurring concerns about Greece’s fiscal position, an immediate threat of a China tightening and the effect of US president Obama’s banking reforms, markets were concerned as well about the increasing debate on Bernanke’s re-appointment for a second term as Fed chairman.
Nonetheless, Wall St endured its third consecutive down day with cumulative losses of over 5% and registered their worst weekly performance since the market bottomed last March.
The Bank of Japan started its second day policy meeting today (the first of 2010) under increasing pressure to attack deflation. Governor Shirakawa is on record asking for easy monetary conditions, and there is a chance that the bank’s other options will come into play (i.e. expanding the credit program or increasing its monthly purchases of government bonds).
The slightly positive developments that took place on some of these fronts led to a small rebound in risk during the Asian session today. The GBP made it back to above 1.61 again, but it is still looking a bit shaky.
In an interview for Sunday Times done over the weekend, Chancellor Darling still remained cautious over the economy’s outlook, stating it still needs government support. He was also skeptical about the banking reforms proposed by president Obama (which could be considered non positive for the “City of London”).
With a quiet start to the week on the data front, it will be interesting to see if the slightly better mood from Asia extends into the week.
The data highlights for the rest of the week include UK Q4 GDP tomorrow; the FOMC meeting on Wednesday followed by US durable goods orders on Thursday; and Q4 US GDP on Friday.

